3 marzo 2012

LA NATURA DELLA MONETA E' CENTRALE

Parla Stephanie Kelton, docente all’Università del Missouri

-La Modern Monetary Theory considera decisiva la natura della moneta nel funzionamento del sistema economico: cosa c’entra l’euro con la crisi del debito? 

Penso che sia sempre più chiaro a tutti nel mondo che i mercati finanziari spadroneggeranno nei confronti dei Paesi che non sono in grado di reagire. Vorrei portare l’esempio del Giappone, un Paese dove il rapporto debito/Pil è superiore al 200%, ma i tassi d’interesse sono bassi da decenni. Tutti pensano che prendendo a prestito troppo denaro si andrebbero a pagare tassi d’interesse troppo elevati e insostenibili, ma il caso del Giappone dimostra il contrario. Non è tanto importante l’ammontare del debito, quanto la capacità di ripagarlo. I mercati pensano che il Giappone, gli Stati Uniti, il Regno Unito possano sopravvivere e questo perché hanno la loro valuta e possono fissare i tassi d’interesse. Una Banca centrale, come la Federal Reserve, può acquistare le obbligazioni nella quantità che ritiene opportuna per spingere i tassi al ribasso. Ciò fa sì che questi Paesi non siano esposti sul mercato, mentre ad esempio in Italia siete costretti a pagare quello che vi impongono i mercati.

-Sta dicendo che gli attacchi speculativi alla zona euro e la valuta sono collegati?

Vi attaccano poiché pensano che potete fallire e ciò avviene perché avete rinunciato alla sovranità monetaria. Quando l’Italia aveva la lira le probabilità di default erano pari a zero perché le agenzie di rating sapevano che, essendo titolari di debiti nella vostra stessa valuta potevate sempre ripagarli. La cosa cambia completamente se il debito è in una valuta estera, che bisogna acquistare altrove. -E questo è il caso dell’euro?
Esattamente. Negli Usa, quando Standard&Poor’s ci ha tolto la tripla A tutti pensavano: non potranno prendere a prestito denaro! Dovranno pagare alti tassi d’interesse! Invece è successo l’esatto contrario: il giorno seguente il declassamento, infatti, tutti sono corsi a comprare obbligazioni Usa e quindi il tasso di interesse è sceso anziché aumentare. Il fatto, poi, che nella zona euro ci siano ancora Paesi che hanno un rating tripla A, penso alla Germania, dimostra quanto poco siano affidabili le agenzie di rating.

-Professoressa, come giudica le politiche promosse dall’Unione europea per fronteggiare la crisi?

E’ follia. Sappiamo che quando si cerca di rilanciare un’economia, l’ultima cosa che si può fare è quella di soffocarla licenziando, tagliando gli stipendi, le pensioni. In questo modo è impossibile rilanciare domanda e consumo. Non solo, quando si adottano politiche di austerità finanziaria, con riduzione dei redditi e aumento dell’imposizione fiscale, il deficit tende ad aumentare, contrariamente a quanto si pensa. Con queste politiche, la Grecia, ad esempio, fallirà certamente.

-E’ corretto paragonare il debito statale con quello delle famiglie?

L’analogia non funziona affatto in Paesi che hanno la propria valuta, come Usa e Giappone, ma calza a pennello in economie che non hanno la propria valuta, come per esempio l’Italia. Una volta il presidente Obama disse che siccome le famiglie americane tiravano la cinghia era giusto che anche il governo facesse lo stesso. Allora scrissi un articolo in cui sostenni che bisognava fare proprio il contrario: quando i cittadini tirano la cinghia il governo dovrebbe allargare la sua, altrimenti i primi ci rimettono anche la camicia. La bestia nera del neoliberismo e delle autorità europee è l’inflazione. Anche l’MMT non sottovaluta il fenomeno, ma ritiene più decisivi dati come il tasso di disoccupazione, poiché una società che tende alla piena occupazione mantiene un equilibrio e protegge la democrazia, che invece è a rischio in Europa.

Fonte:  http://www.televideo.rai.it/

2 commenti:

  1. MI SEMBRA CHE LA FACCENDA EMERGA CON SEMPRE MAGGIORE COMPETENZA ED EFFICACIA. E CI VUOL POCO A CAPIRLO! TUTTAVIA LA POPOLAZIONE ITALIANA è TORBIDA E LENTA AD AGIRE.

    RispondiElimina
    Risposte
    1. Gentile Giorgio, hai perfettamente ragione...
      Mi sono permessa di estrapolare da blogger la tua mail, presto ti scriverò per un progetto molto importante ed interessante a riguardo...
      Un caro saluto
      Alba

      Elimina

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